DOH predicts active COVID-19 cases down to 7,000 if current conditions maintained

The Department of Health on Saturday projected that active COVID-19 cases across the country would be down to around 7,000 if the current conditions prevailed.

“If the current measures are maintained, the mobility is the same as of last week, the compliance to minimum health standards is the same, as well as the detection to isolation is still at 5.5 days, we will have about 7,000 active cases by December 15 in our country,” DOH Spokesperson Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said in a mix of Filipino and English during the Laging Handa briefing.

“But in case the mobility rises to about 98% and compliance to health standards will go down to as much as 24%, the country will record about 20,000 active cases by December 15,” she added.

As for the NCR, Vergeire said the region could expect “a better Christmas, but we need to be compliant with all our protocols.”

DOH figures revealed that national active cases may range from 12,264 to 12,584  by end of November, and 6,071 to 7,301 by December 15 if the current mobility and compliance to MPHS were maintained and active cases continued to decline.

The department, however, observed an uptrend of active cases in scenarios where there is increased mobility from 95% to 98% and a corresponding decrease in the compliance to MPHS by 22% to 24%.

“In these scenarios, active cases may reach up to 18,338 to 19,210 by the end of November and 15,956 to 20,649 by mid-December,” DOH said.

A similar observation was made with NCR projections.

The DOH projected active cases for NCR will continue to decline and may drop to 2,391 to 2,402 cases by November 30 and 1,241 to 1,355 by December 15 if current mobility and MPHS compliance are maintained.

But if mobility increases to 88% to 83% coupled with MPHS compliance reduction by 26% to 33%, active cases may reach 2,711 to 3,036 cases by the end of November and 1,843 to 2,691 cases by Mid-December.

She made the comment as the OCTA Research group reported that the positivity rate in NCR decreased to 2%.

The DOH on Friday recorded 1,485 new COVID-19 cases, bringing the nationwide tally to 2,823,210. Active infections stood at 23,200. — DVM, GMA News

DOH predicts active COVID-19 cases down to 7,000 if current conditions maintained
Source: Filipino Viral News PH